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Probability and Statistics

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Probability and Statistics 

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Distributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.

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Probability and Statistics 

Why Things Happen

25/07/202105/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Causation, Complexity, Randomness, Science, Statistical Inference

How do we know why things happen? Statistics can’t explain. Neither can mathematics. So how do we determine causality?

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Probability and Statistics 

How to Lie With Data

13/06/202105/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Charts, Data, Visualisations

Data lies sometimes. How? Sometimes the inputs are faulty. Sometimes the comparisons are unfair. Visualisations can be misleading.

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Investment Philosophy Probability and Statistics 

A Quick Post on Deduction

01/03/202114/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Deduction, Induction

Deduction, as opposed to induction, is the act of arriving at conclusion bottom-up, by applying logic to axioms. Here we introduce the technique.

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Probability and Statistics 

Induction: Hume vs. Keynes

20/12/202014/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Deduction, History, Induction, Statistical Inference

Keynes argued against Hume’s perspective on induction. But they were actually talking about slightly different things.

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Investment Vehicles Personal Finance Probability and Statistics Risk 

Owning vs. Renting: A Definitive Answer

22/11/202006/11/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Model, Stochasticity

Is it a better financial decision to buy a property or rent? Buying, probably – but it depends on the situation. You have to run the numbers. And even then…

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Probability and Statistics 

Gareth’s Big Mistake: Distributions vs. Averages

26/07/202014/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution

Looking at moments restricts some information. Focusing on single-point estimators, rather than the while sample, can lead you to mistaken conclusions.

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Investment Philosophy Probability and Statistics Risk 

Shit Happens

14/07/202014/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Ergodicity, Fluctuation risk, Strategy

Stuff happens outside of your portfolio that can force you to sell. Timeline is stochastic. This is why investors often don’t enjoy the returns of the index.

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