This Stat Pisses Me Off
I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.
Read moreI always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.
Read moreStatistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.
Read moreDistributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.
Read moreHow do we know why things happen? Statistics can’t explain. Neither can mathematics. So how do we determine causality?
Read moreData lies sometimes. How? Sometimes the inputs are faulty. Sometimes the comparisons are unfair. Visualisations can be misleading.
Read moreDeduction, as opposed to induction, is the act of arriving at conclusion bottom-up, by applying logic to axioms. Here we introduce the technique.
Read moreKeynes argued against Hume’s perspective on induction. But they were actually talking about slightly different things.
Read moreIs it a better financial decision to buy a property or rent? Buying, probably – but it depends on the situation. You have to run the numbers. And even then…
Read moreLooking at moments restricts some information. Focusing on single-point estimators, rather than the while sample, can lead you to mistaken conclusions.
Read moreStuff happens outside of your portfolio that can force you to sell. Timeline is stochastic. This is why investors often don’t enjoy the returns of the index.
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