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Probability and Statistics

Probability and Statistics 

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202219/03/2022 Haydn Martin History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

There is one investing statistic that I see more than any other. I’ll be innocently browsing twitter or in the

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202121/09/2021 Haydn Martin Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

As we have seen in Part I, statistics is hard. The improper use of statistics can lead us to having

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202127/12/2021 Haydn Martin Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Classical statistics is reliant on the fact that observations about the past tell us something about the future. This is

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Probability and Statistics 

Why Things Happen

25/07/202125/07/2021 Haydn Martin Causation, Complexity, Randomness, Science, Statistical Inference

Recently I have been thinking a lot about causality, largely triggered by reading The Book of Why and Fooled By

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Probability and Statistics 

How to Lie With Data

13/06/202121/11/2021 Haydn Martin Average, Charts, Data, Visualisations

I don’t trust data. Whenever I see a pretty chart, an average, a line going up and to the right,

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Investment Philosophy Probability and Statistics 

A Quick Post on Deduction

01/03/202116/06/2021 Haydn Martin Deduction, Induction

As we discovered in a previous post, inductive reasoning has its flaws. Mostly these arise because we are vulnerable to

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Probability and Statistics 

Induction: Hume vs. Keynes

20/12/202016/06/2021 Haydn Martin Deduction, History, Induction, Statistical Inference

At the beginning of Part III of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability he quotes the anti-inductive argument made by Hume

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Investment Vehicles Personal Finance Probability and Statistics Risk 

Owning vs. Renting: A Definitive Answer

22/11/202014/06/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Model, Stochasticity

The biggest financial goal of many people is to buy a house. Purchasing a residential property is what they save

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Probability and Statistics 

Gareth’s Big Mistake: Distributions vs. Averages

26/07/202014/06/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution

Gareth is 50 years old. Retiring in 15 years time, he realises that he needs roughly £1.5M to live comfortably

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Investment Philosophy Probability and Statistics Risk 

Shit Happens

14/07/202014/06/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Ergodicity, Fluctuation risk, Strategy

When I was 18 I learned an investing lesson that most still don’t grasp. As a fresh-faced 18-year-old, I was

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