This Stat Pisses Me Off
I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.
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Probability and Statistics
Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences
Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.
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Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem
Distributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.
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Why Things Happen
How do we know why things happen? Statistics can’t explain. Neither can mathematics. So how do we determine causality?
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How to Lie With Data
Data lies sometimes. How? Sometimes the inputs are faulty. Sometimes the comparisons are unfair. Visualisations can be misleading.
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A Quick Post on Deduction
Deduction, as opposed to induction, is the act of arriving at conclusion bottom-up, by applying logic to axioms. Here we introduce the technique.
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Induction: Hume vs. Keynes
Keynes argued against Hume’s perspective on induction. But they were actually talking about slightly different things.
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Owning vs. Renting: A Definitive Answer
Is it a better financial decision to buy a property or rent? Buying, probably – but it depends on the situation. You have to run the numbers. And even then…
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Gareth’s Big Mistake: Distributions vs. Averages
Looking at moments restricts some information. Focusing on single-point estimators, rather than the while sample, can lead you to mistaken conclusions.
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Shit Happens
Stuff happens outside of your portfolio that can force you to sell. Timeline is stochastic. This is why investors often don’t enjoy the returns of the index.
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