Distribution – Perpetual Prudence

Ladder Investing

08/09/202225/10/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Bonds, Buy-and-Hold, Distribution, Government Bonds, History, Life-Cycle Funds, Long-term, Pensions, Return, Shares

What’s the best way to invest inside of a fixed, long-term vehicle? I compare Buy-And-Hold, Life-cycle Funds, and a new approach that I call Ladder Investing.

Personal Finance

Putting Out a FIRE Part I: The Numbers Don’t Add Up

11/04/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution, Expectation, FIRE, Return, Wealth

Popular FIRE accumulation and withdrawal are too risky. Simulations tell you that following FIRE religiously can leave you exposed.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Distributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.

Probability and Statistics

Gareth’s Big Mistake: Distributions vs. Averages

26/07/202014/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution

Looking at moments restricts some information. Focusing on single-point estimators, rather than the while sample, can lead you to mistaken conclusions.