Induction – Perpetual Prudence

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.

Investment Environment

Nothing Can Hedge Against Inflation

18/12/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Cryptocurrency, Gold, History, Induction, Inflation, Oil, Property, Shares, Statistical Inference

Here we look at the most popular inflation hedges and their correlation with the general level of prices. We see that none of them work as inflation hedge.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.