Statistical Inference – Perpetual Prudence

Investment Environment

Nothing Can Hedge Against Inflation

18/12/202118/12/2021 Haydn Martin Cryptocurrency, Gold, History, Induction, Inflation, Oil, Property, Shares, Statistical Inference

We have already discussed how and why inflation is bad for you, investment-wise. All returns should only be considered after

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202121/09/2021 Haydn Martin Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

As we have seen in Part I, statistics is hard. The improper use of statistics can lead us to having

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202127/12/2021 Haydn Martin Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Classical statistics is reliant on the fact that observations about the past tell us something about the future. This is

Probability and Statistics

Why Things Happen

25/07/202125/07/2021 Haydn Martin Causation, Complexity, Randomness, Science, Statistical Inference

Recently I have been thinking a lot about causality, largely triggered by reading The Book of Why and Fooled By

Probability and Statistics

Induction: Hume vs. Keynes

20/12/202016/06/2021 Haydn Martin Deduction, History, Induction, Statistical Inference

At the beginning of Part III of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability he quotes the anti-inductive argument made by Hume