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Statistical Inference

Investment Philosophy 

Why I’m Against Optimisation

03/04/202203/04/2022 Haydn Martin Portfolio Construction, Principles, Return, Statistical Inference

Whenever I’m browsing investing and personal finance content I see a word that makes me sick: “Optimisation” We are told

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Probability and Statistics 

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202219/03/2022 Haydn Martin History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

There is one investing statistic that I see more than any other. I’ll be innocently browsing twitter or in the

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Investment Environment 

Nothing Can Hedge Against Inflation

18/12/202112/06/2022 Haydn Martin Cryptocurrency, Gold, History, Induction, Inflation, Oil, Property, Shares, Statistical Inference

We have already discussed how and why inflation is bad for you, investment-wise. All returns should only be considered after

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202121/09/2021 Haydn Martin Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

As we have seen in Part I, statistics is hard. The improper use of statistics can lead us to having

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Probability and Statistics 

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202127/12/2021 Haydn Martin Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Classical statistics is reliant on the fact that observations about the past tell us something about the future. This is

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Probability and Statistics 

Why Things Happen

25/07/202125/07/2021 Haydn Martin Causation, Complexity, Randomness, Science, Statistical Inference

Recently I have been thinking a lot about causality, largely triggered by reading The Book of Why and Fooled By

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Probability and Statistics 

Induction: Hume vs. Keynes

20/12/202016/06/2021 Haydn Martin Deduction, History, Induction, Statistical Inference

At the beginning of Part III of Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability he quotes the anti-inductive argument made by Hume

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