Statistical Inference – Perpetual Prudence

AI Will Fix Everything

08/01/202321/01/2023 Haydn Martin 0 Comments AI, Complexity, Long-term, Machine Learning, Robo-advisers, Statistical Inference, The Future

The hype around AI may have left you wondering if this magical technology will solve retail investing so you don’t have to worry about it. Well…

Personal Finance

Don’t Teach Personal Finance in Schools

20/11/202204/01/2023 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Complexity, Derivatives, Education, Forecast, Passive Investing, Statistical Inference, Trading

Should they teach personal finance in schools? No. In this post we explore the reasons why this is a bad idea.

Investment Philosophy

Why I’m Against Optimisation

03/04/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Portfolio Construction, Principles, Return, Statistical Inference

Optimisation is stupid. Trying to build the max-return portfolio, taking on debt, and building the “perfect” personal finance structure are foolish endeavours.

Probability and Statistics

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.

Investment Environment

Nothing Can Hedge Against Inflation

18/12/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Cryptocurrency, Gold, History, Induction, Inflation, Oil, Property, Shares, Statistical Inference

Here we look at the most popular inflation hedges and their correlation with the general level of prices. We see that none of them work as inflation hedge.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Distributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.