Statistical Inference – Perpetual Prudence

Why I’m Against Optimisation

03/04/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Portfolio Construction, Principles, Return, Statistical Inference

Optimisation is stupid. Trying to build the max-return portfolio, taking on debt, and building the “perfect” personal finance structure are foolish endeavours.

Probability and Statistics

This Stat Pisses Me Off

19/03/202204/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments History, Induction, Return, Shares, Statistical Inference

I always see people posting something along the lines of “the market has gone up in a 20-year period 90% of the time”. This drives me insane.

Investment Environment

Nothing Can Hedge Against Inflation

18/12/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Cryptocurrency, Gold, History, Induction, Inflation, Oil, Property, Shares, Statistical Inference

Here we look at the most popular inflation hedges and their correlation with the general level of prices. We see that none of them work as inflation hedge.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part II: The Consequences

21/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Distribution, FTSE 100, Induction, Risk, Shares, Statistical Inference, Uncertainty

Statistics is hard. It’s hard to tell what generating function we are dealing with. And this function can change. We must use what we know via deduction.

Probability and Statistics

Statistics Is Useless Part I: The Problem

14/09/202104/07/2022 Haydn Martin 0 Comments Average, Distribution, Statistical Inference

Distributions come from one of four types of generating functions. The problem it’s hard to tell what the generator is. This causes all types of problems.